Conviction Under Uncertainty
Framework
Important founder decisions often combine fear, incomplete data, taste, and conviction. The skill is deciding which uncertainty is acceptable and which requires more evidence.
Use this when
- Deciding what the company must own versus rent, outsource, or partner for.
- Evaluating whether to wait for more proof or move with conviction.
- Distinguishing true moats from old-world assumptions about infrastructure.
Prompts
- What has become commoditized in this market?
- What still requires taste, trust, speed, or cultural timing?
- What evidence would change our mind?
- Is delay safer than action, or is delay itself the bigger risk?